Title: Comparison of mortality and infectivity parameters of the SEIR model between the 1918-20 influenza and the COVID-19 pandemic for selected U.S. states
Author(s) : Kyongsei Sohn, Mustafa Canbolat
U.S. Predictions regarding the potential economic impact of future pandemics were based on the effects of the 1918-20 influenza in the past. The basis of comparisons is shifting with the recent experience of the COVID-19 pandemic as high-frequency data on death rates from this viral infection become available. This paper investigates the U.S. mortality rate and economic impact of a potential modern-day influenza epidemic, using the SEIR model by comparing updated data from COVID-19 with historical data from selected U.S. states during the 1918-1920 influenza. Compared to the estimated 675,000 deaths during the 1918-20 influenza, COVID-19 deaths significantly exceeded a figure with 1.2 million. Despite the technological and scientific advancements over the past century, similarities in the economic impact of the two pandemics have been observed. The paper highlights specific similarities and differences between the two pandemics and identifies areas that need further attention. Preliminary data analysis indicates that the 1918-20 influenza had a higher mortality rate and a higher infectivity parameter across 24 U.S. states. For example, the mortality rate (per 100,000 population) during the 1918-20 influenza was at least three times higher. In Vermont, the annual mortality rate was 37 times higher in 1918 compared to 2020. New York and California experienced larger economic losses due to COVID-19-related deaths, while Pennsylvania had the worst mortality rate during the 1918-20 influenza epidemic. Although the mortality rate was much higher during the 1918-20 flu epidemic, the difference in infectivity parameters between the two pandemics was less pronounced.